2026 U.S. Senate Race — Texas (Class II)

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by

Michael Phillips
in , , , ,

Race Overview
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is one of the most closely watched contests in the midterm cycle. Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn seeks a fifth term in a state Republicans have carried consistently statewide, but intra-party division and an energized Democratic opposition have elevated national interest. Early voting for the primary begins February 17, 2026, with the March 3 primary and a potential runoff on May 26 if no Republican surpasses 50%. The General Election is November 3, 2026.

Republican Primary — Competitive Three-Way Fight

The GOP primary is a high-stakes battle between establishment and insurgent wings:

John Cornyn (Incumbent)

  • Longtime U.S. Senator and former NRSC chair with heavy fundraising and national GOP backing.
  • Raised a record-high quarter, reporting roughly $7 million in Q4 2025, boosting his overall cash position.

Ken Paxton (Texas Attorney General)

  • Trump-aligned challenger who officially filed and energized the conservative base.
  • His campaign draws on border security and antigovernment rhetoric.

Wesley Hunt (U.S. Rep., TX-38)

  • Houston Republican offering a new generation conservative alternative.
  • Actively campaigning across Texas, including recent stops in East and North Texas that highlight grassroots outreach.

Field Dynamics
Polling suggests a tight race, with Cornyn and Paxton often close in early GOP surveys. A third candidate—Hunt—complicates the path to a clear majority and makes a runoff likely.

Endorsement Watch
Former President Donald Trump has declined to endorse and remains a key wildcard. Cornyn requested an endorsement, but Trump has so far chosen to watch the race develop.

There are several other minor GOP filers, but none currently show statewide traction.

Democratic Primary — Two-Way Contest

On the Democratic side, the primary is shaping into a competitive choice between two statewide office hopefuls:

Jasmine Crockett (U.S. Rep., TX-30)

  • Leads with strong base enthusiasm and name recognition, campaigning statewide to build crossover appeal.

James Talarico (State Rep., HD-50)

  • Well-funded candidate with a substantial cash reserve, targeting broader appeal beyond the progressive base.

The Democratic field is smaller than expected after a key potential entrant shifted to a House bid late in the filing cycle.

General Election Dynamics

Texas remains reliably Republican in statewide contests, but multiple factors could tighten this race:

  • GOP primary turbulence could depress turnout or create fractures heading into November.
  • National attention and funding flows may narrow margins.
  • Early polling suggests Republican candidates hold advantages, but statewide demographics and enthusiasm patterns warrant continued monitoring.

No major independent or third-party candidates have emerged yet.

Key Dates

  • Feb. 2, 2026 — Voter registration deadline for the primary.
  • Feb. 17–27, 2026 — Early voting period.
  • March 3, 2026 — Primary election.
  • May 26, 2026 — Primary runoffs (if needed).
  • Nov. 3, 2026 — General election.

Bottom Line for Election Desk

This Texas Senate race is a story of intra-party Republican tension and Democratic opportunity amid demographic shifts. The March primary will shape not only the nominee but also signals about GOP priorities and voter enthusiasm heading into the general election. Democrats have targeted the seat as one of their best pickup opportunities, but success hinges on candidate quality, turnout, and broader national headwinds.

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