Tag: election forecasting
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Fake Polls, Volatile Markets: What Voters Should — and Shouldn’t — Trust Ahead of November
The credibility of polling and prediction markets ahead of the 2026 midterms is under scrutiny following incidents of fabricated polls and undisclosed funding. Median Strategies and The Public Sentiment Institute faced criticism for their practices. Despite these issues, polling and markets continue to play a significant role in shaping election forecasts.
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The Odds Are Everywhere Now. Are They Any Good?
Political prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, provide real-time betting odds for elections, raising questions about their accuracy and legality. While they offer a unique insight into voter sentiment, research shows mixed results compared to polls. Market dynamics can skew predictions, influenced by large traders, making these figures just one of several inputs, not definitive…
