Category: Explainers
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Fake Polls, Volatile Markets: What Voters Should — and Shouldn’t — Trust Ahead of November
The credibility of polling and prediction markets ahead of the 2026 midterms is under scrutiny following incidents of fabricated polls and undisclosed funding. Median Strategies and The Public Sentiment Institute faced criticism for their practices. Despite these issues, polling and markets continue to play a significant role in shaping election forecasts.
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What to Know Before You Trust a Political Poll: A Maryland Case Study
A recent Maryland governor’s race poll reveals a significant early lead for one candidate. Election Desk emphasizes evaluating political surveys beyond just results, encouraging voters to consider poll sponsors, methodologies, question wording, and reporting relationships. This approach aims to empower voters with tools to interpret polling data and its context effectively.
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Federal Judge Expands Nationwide Block on Trump Mail-Ballot Order as Supreme Court Weighs Two Requests to Lift It
A federal judge in Boston, Indira Talwani, has broadened a previous injunction against a Trump executive order restricting mail-in ballots to apply nationwide, citing urgent election concerns. This ruling comes amid ongoing Supreme Court deliberations regarding the order. It blocks the USPS from enforcing specific sections of the order before the November elections.
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The Odds Are Everywhere Now. Are They Any Good?
Political prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, provide real-time betting odds for elections, raising questions about their accuracy and legality. While they offer a unique insight into voter sentiment, research shows mixed results compared to polls. Market dynamics can skew predictions, influenced by large traders, making these figures just one of several inputs, not definitive…
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Maryland’s Redistricting Amendment Faces a Ballot-Deadline Lawsuit — Here’s the Case Being Made on Both Sides
A lawsuit in Maryland aims to remove a congressional redistricting amendment, HB 2100, from the November ballot, claiming the General Assembly missed its certification deadline. While the timing is disputed, the amendment would change the rules for congressional map-drawing, potentially benefiting the Democratic majority before 2028 elections.
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Florida’s Other Senate Race: How the 2026 Special Election to Replace Marco Rubio Works
Florida’s upcoming special Senate election, occurring on August 18, 2026, follows Marco Rubio’s resignation after being appointed U.S. Secretary of State. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Ashley Moody as interim senator. She faces challenges from lesser-known Republicans, while Democrats Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon vie for their party’s nomination. The general election is scheduled for November…
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DNC Rules Panel Advances Measure Limiting Ranked-Choice Voting in 2028 Primaries
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee aims to prevent ranked-choice voting from impacting delegate allocation for the 2028 presidential primary, despite state requirements. The full DNC will consider this recommendation at an upcoming meeting, with implications for states like Maine and Washington, D.C., that mandate ranked ballots.
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How the SAVE Act Would Actually Change Voter Registration — And Why It’s Not the Only Citizenship Fight in Court
The article discusses two approaches to citizenship verification for voter registration in Washington: the SAVE Act, a stalled bill in Congress aimed at requiring documentary proof of citizenship, and a presidential executive order affecting mail ballots, currently under legal scrutiny. Both efforts seek to ensure only citizens vote, but operate through distinct legal pathways.
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How a Single Election Can Reshape Government for a Decade
Down-ballot races, often overlooked during elections, hold significant power in shaping long-term governance. These positions influence judicial decisions, redistricting, election administration, regulatory policies, and legal challenges. With impacts that last beyond election cycles and presidencies, these elections quietly define the political landscape for a decade or more, underscoring their importance.
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What Louisiana v. Callais Means for Voting Rights and Elections
Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act prohibits state or local practices from denying the right to vote based on race. It empowers voters to challenge discriminatory laws and practices. The Supreme Court case Louisiana v. Callais may redefine Section 2’s application, impacting minority voting strength and redistricting nationwide.
Election Desk 